Around 10 % of the world's GDP is spent on healthcare every year, half of it in the last year of life. What if we could identify this last year in advance? What would be the benefits for doctors, patients and their families? For the economy? And above all, what risks would we face as human societies?
In recent years, research articles identifying physiological or metabolic parameters that enable the identification of 6-8 year-olds at high risk of death from any cause have begun to appear. In addition, our team's work shows the existence of highly stereotyped end-of-life events that are largely conserved throughout evolution. Taken together, these findings suggest that the ability to predict the high risk of all-cause death at the individual level is within reach.
In this work recently published in BMC Medical Ethics, we discuss and attempt to outline the most important questions raised by this coming possibility using philosophy, clinical psychology, actuarial mathematics and intensive care unit medicine. Based on the questions and answers provided by philosophy, which “gave much attention to the meaning of the mortal condition.” and by psychologists who “work with people suffering from life-threatening illnesses”.” , We highlight the similarity between the prediction of a high risk of imminent death in a healthy adult and the experience associated with early diagnosis of Huntington's disease. We also discuss the potential benefits of personalized medicine that could be better tailored to a person's physiological age, and counterbalance these benefits with potential devastating side effects concerning“the design of public pensions and long-term care systems [who] could be modified”.”. The most important question we have raised is simple: “Which institutions, if any, should have access to information on predictors of death? Furthermore, who will be responsible for verifying the use of this data, and for how long? wider audience?
A French manuscript updated in the journal Médecine/Sciences : https://www.medecinesciences.org/en/articles/medsci/full_html/2020/11/msc190265/msc190265.html
More details here in a conference held on December 4, 2019 at the Ministry of Solidarity and Health as part of the National Platform for End-of-Life Research.
